The countdown to kickoff is here! Scott Frost will rely on a fairly easy schedule to get off the hot seat, but challenges will be more than speed bumps as Husker Nation holds its collective breath! A trip out of town just might be the ticket.

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The morning ride to work has more anticipation as I tune to 1620 The Zone to hear the latest pontificating about the status of the program from prognosticators who have helped shape the demise of previous coaching staffs at Nebraska. It is a little too soon for that and for the smell of Fall, but just a couple of weeks ago you could catch a whiff of it with the right temperature and a wind direction change. The preseason polls are out, the line on the Husker game is fixed with a consensus of being favored by 13 and with just over 9 days prior to kickoff, the game plan has probably already been put in. Put it in too soon and you forego improving on the basics for the whole program and it gives an air of jitters for the upcoming season. However, if you avoid it and wait too late, you disavow the importance of this opener for Scott Frost and the Huskers. Waiting too late also provides an opportunity for distractions during the week of international travel.

For Mr. Frost, this is the year to excise the demons of spiritual warfare all the way from the Lawrence Phillips issues to the arrogance of relying on the whole conference to change how they do things just to compete with the Huskers. The last four years have really been about eating humble pie and now we will see just how humility can deliver a soul from peril. He will have to rely on the judgement of others on his staff, that quite honestly some of whom may be more capable than he is, with a trust that can only come from being in trench warfare together. Will the opportunist, who once did forsake Husker Nation for the Standford Cardinal only to return as the prodigal son that was all forgotten with another National Championship, take the opportunity to use his current staff appropriately? Or, will he go for it again against the Wildcats on 4th and 6 with no need to do so and then punt on 4th and inches when the game is in the balance and the points are needed more than field position? We like to think that Mr. Alberts could weigh heavily on the elimination of junior varsity coaching mistakes and more even keeled and tepid, Tom Osborne like responses will be in order. We can only hope as the prayers of Husker Nation are upon him.

A contrast exists between Frost and Pat Fitzgerald, other than the former being a National Championship quarterback and the latter being a standout linebacker, each coaching for their respective alma mater, one always knowing where home is and other trying to figure out if home truly was. Fitzgerald, now entering into his seventeenth year as Head Coach with ten bowl appearances, faces a sort of warm seat after coming off a dismal 2021 season himself. Not that he is going anywhere, as he exudes class, professionalism and charm, and actually success for a school better known for its academics than its football. For all intents and purposes, the expectations are lower on a national scale for the formidable Wildcats than for our beloved Huskers. But, for the upcoming game the expectations for Northwestern and Fitzgerald just may embarrass the odds makers. The loss of one dominant back, like Cam Porter in 2021 for the Wildcats, can quite significantly impact a team like Northwestern unlike Nebraska that has so much depth that a lack of usage may cause teleportation out of Husker Nation at season’s end. Relying on, “Our 3-9 is better than your 3-9…nah nah nah nah nah!” will get us nowhere, because no matter the depth there is only the best 11 on the field at any given time. And, the weather outlook favors the big uglies and balances out the depth differences (it looks to be 63 degrees, no rain, slight breeze at this time). What is exciting about this game are the match-ups that will determine the outcome.

For my money the game will be decided by the match up of Peter Skoronski (#77) and Garrett Nelson and/or Caleb Tannor. Hilinski is not the type of quarterback who will overwhelm you with his average play and needing time to make reads downfield will rely on the aforementioned match-up to determine when the clock strikes midnight. The fact that Nebraska rushed for over 400 yards on the Wildcats in 2021 is inconsequential, as the differences in coaching philosophy will show that a throwaway season is an opportunity to develop talent from the pools of youth and the, “Beam me out of here, Snotty,” portal which was a Godsend for both programs, arguably favors Northwestern. This match-up is more about our defense and their offense than it is about their defense and our offense, which except for nomenclature will probably look like all the other read option offenses out there. I could safely make the argument that we could have lined up in Ace set and ran the ball on 2-high safety and passed it when it wasn’t, and had a better record last year, but that is besides the point. My expectation is the lag of offensive cohesion will impact our Huskers more so than the Wildcats. This will be in part due to the fact of the changes in the offense during the off-season, both in coaches and system. Despite the fact their defense was porous last year, let’s not overlook the fact that defenses usually start the season off better than offenses and this year will be no exception considering the Huskers endured the departing of Adrian Martinez.

What hurts Nebraska is the quarterback situation. Casey Thompson comes to Nebraska via Texas with a lower 2021 QBR (62.6) or quarterback rating compared to Martinez’s 72.5 QBR. What will be exciting to see if the new offense can account for the 4/5 vs 7/8 downfield defensive advantage that Martinez faced in 2021 in passing situations. Let’s face it, if you only need to rush 3 or 4 and can blitz from the top level DB’s on occasion, there really is no need to bring them. And there in lies the elephant in the room, how will the Husker offensive line perform? I honestly believe that the Husker OL has been the biggest waste of talent in the Frost era. The Oregon Ducks OL of the glory days should never be the model for Big Ten football and watching big guys walk off the field with a sense of dejection as often as I have seen it over the previous four years, is an indication that lining up and running dive plays all night might prove something! Did I say that if we lined up in Ace set last year and if there were two high safeties in base situations (1 & 10, 2 & 4,5, and 6, and 3 & 1, 2, and 3) we would have hands down won those games lost less than seven (points that is) by running the ball more?

I always worry when the news focuses on how much someone squats, benches and cleans when they haven’t proved anything on the field as of yet. I am not knocking anyone, but lets not brag until we see some pancakes and then people ask those questions rather than the bluster of propaganda, which is my number one complaint and the first hint of the same ol’ same ol’ in Huskerland. They really love the propaganda disguised as marketing. Back in the good old days there would be on the field performance and then the bragging, not the other way around and then not get there.

In typical fashion, poor coaching has led to another pass-up in Smothers…how many QB’s will have to portal out before Mr. Frost gets it? But I have to admit, Chubba intrigues the hell out of me. I see or hear a lot of potential in this type of guy and I would imagine he will probably come off the bench have a successful run at it, to be benched at a future date only to portal out….just kidding. πŸ™‚

So, what is the brass tax here? Well the best way to depict it is with a table. A word of caution however, one needs to understand that we will win and cover if the quarterback situation is resolved and solved within the first quarter, which will come by trusting his new staff. Beyond that, it becomes a much more difficult slog.

HuskersWildcats
Quarterback * √
Running Back √
Wide Receiver √
Tight End √
Offensive Line √
Defensive Line √
Linebackers √
Defensive Backs √
Edge Rush √
Coaching √
Intangibles √

Also, I am not saying that their QB is better than ours but I look at the situation, the experience, and the other factors for the moment. I think the Wildcats offensive line is the difference and that difference impacts play selection, which nullifies the edge rush advantage. Not relying on Hilinski is really the key for them but relying on the run game is. I also think that having been competitive with the Huskers during the Frost era (2-2) and then losing like they lost last year is a greater intangible to have than to desperately need a win. What gives solace to that desperation is the distance, distance that may prove beneficial for Husker Nation. If we were playing Notre Dame in Ireland, I would say hands down the luck of the Irish, but a Fitzgerald is just as ominous as far as I am concerned. This advantage goes to Northwestern. I have Northwestern 21-19, and God I hope I am wrong!

Feel free to make comments, if approved, they will be posted by Saturday, August 27…see you then!

Categories: 2022

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